Climate and MOSE in the Fate of Venice
Il Gazzettino, December 15, 2024
Let us not underestimate the present: the actions we take today are crucial to addressing climate change. But let us not overestimate the future to the point of paralysis: the challenges ahead can be faced with determination if we start acting now. In recent days, following the UNFCCC-COP29 conference in Baku on climate change, some comments have highlighted particularly pessimistic prospects for Venice’s future by the end of the century due to rising sea levels.
While disregarding the possibility of processes we do not yet fully understand (referred to as “deep uncertainty” in IPCC terminology), sea level rise over the coming decades is a certainty. Depending on potential emission scenarios—whether or not we succeed in limiting the release of climate-altering gases into the atmosphere—the pace of this rise will vary.
This scenario underscores the urgency and necessity of decarbonizing the economy, a key topic at COP29. The future at the century’s end is not preordained, and much depends on the choices our societies make starting today. In other words, what will happen by 2050 in terms of sea level rise (SLR) is already relatively known, with minimal uncertainty.
In this context, no adaptation measure to SLR adopted by governments and societies around the world can be considered “final.” These measures must address not only flooding but also coastal erosion and saltwater intrusion, which damages agriculture and compromises drinking water supplies.
Any serious discussion about Venice must identify two critical turning points: since October 3, 2020, thanks to MOSE’s steel barriers, Venice has no longer experienced flooding; and since November 21, 2022, the marble of St. Mark’s Basilica has no longer been touched by saltwater, even during frequent medium-high tides, due to innovative transparent glass barriers protecting the Basilica’s facade. This outcome was far from guaranteed. The journey may have been overly long, but today, “Venice is saved.”
Is this salvation “temporary”? Certainly, just like every creation in this extraordinary city built in a transitional environment like a lagoon. Nothing could be more erroneous than considering Venice and its lagoon as immutable over time.
Why, then, be surprised that MOSE is “temporary”? Like other tools adopted in Venice’s millennial journey, it serves to “buy time,” fulfilling the primary condition necessary for the city to remain alive and vibrant.
The Venetian and renowned professor Andrea Rinaldo estimates this “bought time” at 75 years—a span covering three generations, which is far from negligible and must not be wasted. Over the next 75 years, Venice will be the safest UNESCO site compared to about 40 UNESCO sites at risk in the Mediterranean due to rising sea levels and compared to many other coastal cities worldwide.
The damages to Venice’s cultural heritage in the past—tragically exemplified by the marble of St. Mark’s Basilica, crumbled by saltwater—will no longer occur. On the contrary, the protection now achieved has enabled the immediate start of major restoration projects, some already completed. Come and see for yourself.
However, the significant achievement of protection from high waters does not imply that all the goals of the 1973 special law have been achieved. Continued efforts in ecological restoration of the lagoon, urban maintenance, and restoration are still essential, as is the urgent need to “ensure socio-economic vitality,” as stated in Article 1 of the law.
In this context, the commitment of the Venice Sustainability Foundation (VSF) aims to involve not only public institutions but also private actors who can contribute through their activities to the socio-economic vitality the Foundation seeks to promote, facilitate, and catalyze. Immediate action is required, as emphasized by Prof. Paolo Costa, to avoid the paradox of saving the urbs but condemning the civitas to death.
Looking to the future, Prof. Andrea Rinaldo is absolutely right to demand more attention on this issue. It was always explicit in MOSE’s conceptual design that its “mobile” operating scheme would remain viable as long as the sea level rose by no more than 50-60 cm compared to the reference level (1900). At the time, estimates projected this level would be reached in at least 100 years; the acceleration of global phenomena, due to the massive increase in climate-altering gas emissions, has reduced this estimate, though it remains uncertain. It still spans several decades.
Beyond this timeline, however, Venice does not face an immediate “submersion risk”: the current barriers can manage a 2-meter difference between the sea and the lagoon. Instead, the need to review protection strategies in the future becomes evident. Paradoxically, the new solution could even be simpler than the current one but will require eliminating certain constraints (landscape, economic, environmental).
With MOSE, we have “gained time.” Prof. Andrea Rinaldo’s excellent idea to create seven internationally high-caliber study groups to examine the issue and propose new solutions for the next century deserves support. I welcome and amplify this proposal, which can find an ideal platform in the synergy between ISVLA and VSF. Today, we have the duty not to waste the time gained: we must design and plan now the actions that will need to be implemented in the second half of the century.
Venice is aware of the progress made, while acknowledging the delays and mistakes. It boasts advanced expertise in various fields, from high engineering technologies to nature-based solutions. The city’s research centers, including the newly established climate change institution, together with its universities, constitute a heritage of international excellence. Thanks to alliances with global partners (UK, Netherlands, USA, Australia, Japan), Venice has the potential to become the world hub for designing solutions against rising sea levels. A Venice capable of ensuring its safety for the next three generations can continue to save itself and offer a model to the entire world.
Renato Brunetta
President of the Venice Sustainability Foundation
